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U.S. Cannabis Sales Could Hit $71B by 2030

Even if federal legalization doesn't happen.

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New Frontier Data releases 2023 U.S. Cannabis Report: Market Updates & Projections. The report, sponsored by Cannacare Docs, provides details of current and projected sales, consumers, supply and prices for both adult-use and medical cannabis in America.

“As more established markets across the country stabilize, the U.S. cannabis industry will be buoyed by new markets coming online,” said Gary Allen, New Frontier Data’s CEO. “Even if the pace of new markets slows from its current pace, New Frontier Data estimates a healthy nine percent compound annual growth rate through 2030. With nine markets showing strong momentum toward legalizing adult-use and nine others likely to legalize medical, the market growth could be even stronger.”

Key findings from the report include:

  • Legal cannabis sales in the U.S. totaled $30 billion in 2022 and are projected to surpass $35 billion in 2023.
  • If the pace of state-level legalization continues in the absence of federal policy reform, legal cannabis sales are projected to reach $71 billion by 2030. If that pace stagnates, it would still reach $58 billion.
  • An estimated 54 million U.S. adults will consume cannabis in 2023 across both legal and unregulated markets; that will grow to 69 million U.S. consumers by 2030.
  • The total number of registered U.S. medical cannabis patients surpassed 4.5 million in 2022; there will be 5.2 million registered by 2030 (with no assumptions for new markets).
  • The average U.S. consumer price per ounce of flower has declined 10% since 2010, dropping from $325.46 to $294.15.

“Inflation, high taxes and competing illicit markets are compounding price pressures in mature legal markets, and the potential for a recession will negatively impact cannabis consumer spending in the medium term,” added Allen. “But ultimately, these challenges will have little impact on the surging demand for legal cannabis and do little to deter the broader transition of consumers into legal markets.”

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