Whitney Economics, a cannabis and hemp business consulting, data, and economic research company, announced the release of its 2024 U.S. legal cannabis sales forecast. The 2024 forecast for legal adult-use and medical sales will top $31.4 billion, an increase in overall sales of $2.6 billion from 2023. This represents a year over year growth rate of 9.14%.
Cannabis legal sales have been suppressed since the end of the pandemic, partly due to changes in consumer purchasing behavior, macro issues such as higher interest rates, declining cannabis business conditions and slower than normal regulatory implementations in new markets. Despite these headwinds, growth rates have remained positive in the U.S. overall, however, legal cannabis revenues declined in 10 states in 2023.
As part of the annual forecast refresh process, the firm examined industry trends, the effectiveness and pace of state ramps, the level of influence of the illicit market on a state, previous cannabis revenues in the state, as well as regulatory and legislative policy. It also looks for potential changes in the legal states or transitions from medical to adult-use regulatory structures. The annual refresh is a comprehensive process.
Based on the 2024 forecast, the U.S. legal cannabis sales forecast for future years are as follows:
- 2024: $31.4 billion (9.1% growth from 2023)
- 2025: $35.2 billion (12.1% growth from 2024)
- 2030: $67.2 billion
- 2035: $87.0 billion
The forecast does not incorporate any changes to the scheduling of cannabis by the federal government. These numbers also do not include demand for industrial hemp.
